3 posts tagged “aisling analytics”
I enjoyed an all too brief lunch with my brother, Doug today. Doug is a rare individual, someone who lives in the financial stratosphere, managing billions of dollars of investors money, with his feet on the ground.
His fund, the 'Merchant Commodity' fund, (or 'King of Funds' as I call it), is one of the few that has not only survived this year, but thrived, posting a heavy double digit growth for his investors.
He started it with a chap called Mike Coleman just 4 years ago, with just $10m has now earned a stellar reputation for profitable stewardship.
We were chatting about what was likely to happen to the UK, the USA and world-wide and he, like me, thinks the long overdue bursting of the 'superbubble' will eventually bring great benefit to many (although in the short term, there will also be pain as companies and countries readjust to 'the new'.
As the famous L.P. Hartley quote goes "The past is a foreign country. They do things differently there" he believes that 'Chapter New' is going to be a time for great people, to take great risks, and deliver great rewards.
He's backed King of Shaves pretty much since the get-go, he likes the fact I run a company that physically manufactures useful stuff (mainly in the UK too, which is good for our country) and I've tried to give him my 'take' on what's going on in the world - the last time we had dinner was in February, when neither he (or I) could make sense of what was happening, and in true King fashion, he stood firm, took stock and decided "the music had stopped, but for some reason the game was still being played".
So, he's had a great year, we've had a great year and as our global system powers down and reboots itself, are both looking forward to what 2009 will bring.
Keep it real, Doug. We're doing our parents, and Lowestoft, proud!
Multiple undisclosed Sovereign Wealth funds seeking safe havens...? Merchant Commodity Trounces Hedge Funds in September (Update1) 2008-10-10 02:50:40.570 GMT By Netty Ismail Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Merchant Commodity Fund, the hedge fund run by former Cargill Inc. traders Michael Coleman and Doug King, gained 12 percent in September as energy and agricultural prices slumped, two people with knowledge of its performance said. The $2 billion Singapore-based fund beat Eurekahedge's CTA/Managed Futures Hedge Fund Index, which edged up 0.41 percent last month, according to preliminary data. Hedge funds worldwide lost 4.7 percent in September, the biggest monthly drop since the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management LP a decade ago, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. in Chicago. Commodity prices in September fell 11.8 percent, the biggest monthly decline since at least 1956, as measured by the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index. Rising inventories and slumping demand sent contracts from natural gas to corn tumbling, heralding the end of a six-year commodity boom. Merchant and other commodity traders ``have made money. The ones that have done very well have been short agricultural commodities, short equities,'' said Aoifinn Devitt, founder of Clontarf Capital, a London-based consulting firm that tracks about 20 commodity hedge funds. ``Any trend-following strategy has been very successful in the past month.'' Paul Touradji, the commodities trader who warned in March that commodity markets might collapse, said his main fund returned 12.7 percent in the second half through Oct. 7. Touradji Capital Management LP's Global Resources Fund returned 6.1 percent in July and August, and 0.1 percent last month, Touradji, 37, said yesterday in London. Boom to Bust The CRB index more than doubled from 2001 to a record 473.97 on July 3, underpinned by China's economic growth and the resulting demand for oil, copper and other raw materials. It has since dropped 34 percent as the credit-market seizure that led to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s forced sale squeezes speculators who helped lift commodities to record and slows expansion in the U.S., China and India. As the commodities boom went bust, hedge funds were hurt by bad bets in the market. Boone Pickens, the billionaire founder of BP Capital LLC, last month said 15 percent of his hedge funds' holders asked for the option to withdraw their money after he lost more than $1 billion on energy trades this year. Ospraie Management LLC, once the world's largest hedge fund dedicated to natural resources, on Sept. 2 told investors the New York-based firm would close its largest pool after slumping 38.6 percent for the year. `Protect Capital' ``Investors are looking for somebody who can protect capital in a difficult market,'' said London-based Nicholas Paris, managing partner of Purbeck Advisers LLP, who markets Asian hedge funds to European investors. ``Unfortunately, it's proven difficult for a lot of funds; a lot of them have posted losses this year. Anybody who's making positive returns is well sought after.'' Gains in September boosted the Merchant fund's performance to 9.55 percent this year, almost double the 5.25 percent advance in the first five months of the year, said the people briefed on the fund's performance, who asked not to be identified because details are private. Still, the hedge fund trailed the 10.3 percent 2008 gain in the CTA/Managed Futures index compiled by Singapore-based data provider Eurekahedge. The Merchant fund's gain this year is also almost a fifth of the 47 percent it returned in 2006. Coleman, Managing Director of Singapore-based Aisling Analytics Pte that manages the Merchant fund, declined to comment. The fund, which he launched with $10 million in June 2004, trades in grains, vegetable oils, coffee, sugar and rubber as well as energy products. Exploit Discrepancies Coleman, 47, and King, 41, use a mix of relative value strategies, which exploit discrepancies between commodities, markets, delivery dates and locations, and so-called directional trading, or betting on prices rising or falling. About 450 commodity hedge funds held $80 billion of assets as of Sept. 1, up from $55 billion last year, said Brad Cole, president of Cole Partners Asset Management in Chicago, as hedge funds helped fuel the commodities rally. Hedge funds are private, largely unregulated pools of capital whose managers can buy or sell any assets, bet on falling as well as rising asset prices, and participate substantially in profits from money invested. For Related News: With reporting by Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London. Editor: Andreea Papuc, Will McSheehy To contact the reporter on this story: Netty Ismail in Singapore +65-6212-1106 or nismail3@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at +852-2977-6641 or apapuc1@bloomberg.net
As markets plummet (see my immediate blog below) some people out there, will be making money. It will be those types with the rare commodity of "Confidence and Commonsense" - the 'C' in my S.P.A.C.E analogy I talk about when I deliver presentations to young entrepreneurs, and Seasoned Businessmen alike.
These individuals I describe as owls. Wise birds, with big eyes, that watch and observe (able to rotate their heads through nearly 360 degrees) and take action when they know they are almost certainly assured of making a killing (if they are a bird of prey) or success of managing their investors' funds.
With the FTSE plummeting 10% in the first 10 minutes of trading, "Blind Panic" is being used by the BBC to describe their reaction.
But, market sentiment can, and often does, turn on a sixpence.
Do GM stocks deserve to be at the value they were 58 years ago? Could the Government instruct banks to not foreclose on mortgage payers in default, by taking stakes in mortgage owners and effectively becoming shareholders.
People need somewhere to live, a place to work, they need to earn cash, to spend in the economy.
Could the reaction to "the possible irrational panic of market sellers" be a few smart individuals who "call the bottom of the market" and realise, that when Big Pharma shares are going down (they make drugs, keep us alive, are more than necessary) that the Bottom is near.
A close relative of mine thinks the Dow is going to bottom at 5,000 (down from 14,700 a year ago). Things cannot fall for ever. For every action, there will be an equal and opposite reaction.
So, will our Government project "Confidence and Commonsense" into the market. And will, the market listen. I think the bottom is close, let's confidently predict that, slow down this dive into the abyss and hang on tight.
I'm glad I sell shaving products in the mass market, through a group of retailers like Tesco and Sainsbury, who will still be around, as people somehow need to get their hands on bread and baked beans, even if their Finest or Gourmet ranges gather dust on the shelf.
